First, I Know the Score... after my previous post about mine and Slicky's standings, we improved greatly. Out of 182,108 he finished at 220th worldwide (top 0.2%), I was at 9563rd (top 6%) and Tammi finished strong at 21,367 (top 12%). Not a bad showing and I expect 2 of the 3 of us to improve next year.
Next...
At the beginning of the season I boldly predicted all 20 places for the 2008/09 season. Slick did the same and I think Tammi did but I can't find the email she sent which included them. The format to judge these predictions is as follows:
- Each team is rated by how far they finished from where I predicted them
- I'll report the overall scores for all 20 and for throwing out the worst 1 and 2 predictions
- I'll divide my raw numbers against the number clubs included (ie. 20, 19 or 18) to determine an average deviation from the remaining... blah, blah blah.....
I even lost my own interest on that one. Ok, back to basics....
- Full 20 teams - 66 places off; average of 3.3 places
- Throw out 1 (either Fulham or Portsmouth) - 58 places off; average 3.05
- Throw out 2 (both of the above) - 50 places off; average 2.78
I figure Slick will post his own at some point and we'll see how I fared against such a knowledgeable predictor... 220th in the world to be precise.
Posts
Sorry for the delay...I've been a bit busy. Thanks for posting this. I think your calculator is doing some weird rounding. I finished in the top 0.12% (versus 0.2%) and you finished in the top 5.3% (6.0). Tammi was 11.7% which is basically the 12% listed. Anyway, I wanted to let you know that we all did better - especially you since it's almost a full percentage higher. I had to point this out since I work with numbers all day.
ReplyDeleteRegarding the table prediction, I probably won't make a post on it. However, I want you to know that we tied overall, tied when taking out the worst pick, and you beat me by one place when taking out the two worst picks. My total score when taking out the worst two comes to 51 places off versus your 50 places off. As I said, the other two ways we had the exact score!
What makes it even more crazy is that my worst two teams were also Fulham and Portsmouth. I was also off 7 places for Fulham but I was off 8 places for Portsmouth...versus your 7 places for Portsmouth. That's the difference. Good job. I'll take being off 8 on Portsmouth though since we stole their manager.
Aaron, let's not get anal about this. It isn't a matter of rounding...
ReplyDeleteIf you're at .0012 and I'm at .053 and I don't want to go to a hundredth of a percent, I can't round to being in the top .1% and 5% can I (because we're actually outside of that percentage)? So I accurately rounded but I just wasn't as precise.
Yeah, Fulham and Portsmouth probably gave most predictors all kinds of problems with their swap in the standings from last year. Minus those we could have kicked out some of the ones where we were just a few spots off, giving us a pretty good 'per team average error.' Oh well, it happens every year I suppose.
Not being anal...just giving you the numbers where you actually finished in case you had a simple calculator or something. I was just trying to help and point out that not saying the exact number was understating where you finished more then anything.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, I've decided to retire. I'm not playing again next year. No where to go but down for me according your post!
BTW, if I was being anal it would go something like this:
ReplyDeleteTop 0.2% would mean that I finished in the top 364th places. In reality, I finished in 220th - a difference of 144 places. 144/220 = 65%...it's about a 65% understatement.
How's that? I had a really hard day at work and I just feel like being a prick to someone tonight...obviously I can't be that way to Julia or Stacey, so pounding away on my keyboard is as harmless and as cowardly of a way as I could think of. Sorry my venting has to be on your blog and about your post - it really has nothing to do with you. It's the classic, it's not you it's me line.
You're seriously not going to play again next year?
ReplyDeleteIf you put so much effort into that game as to intrude upon your weekly schedule, I don't feel so bad having been thoroughly beaten... you earned it. Haha.
I'll get back to the States right around game week 6 or 7. I look forward to watching games with you again... if you'll accept hanging out with a guy who finished so far outside the top 1% as I did. I'm not worthy! I'm not worthy!