You were warned....

The recent news of war in our general neighborhood between Russia and Georgia (not the Bulldog variety) reminded me of predictions made earlier in the year when North Albania (AKA Kosovo) was torn from Serbia by the UN.  While I previously stated that in that case there really wasn't a good guy, I thought it set a bad precedent.

As it became increasingly clear in February that the US, UN, EU and all other 2-letter entities were going to back the independence of North Albania, Russia argued vehemently on behalf of their Serbian slavic brothers.  One of their main "sticks" (they really didn't offer any carrots) was that if Kosovo was allowed independence, the west would have no logical argument to the similar break-away Georgian regions in Russia's backyard.  Abkhazia and South Ossetia are both making similar demands for independence.  Russia has decided that what is good for the goose is good for the gander (is my mom the only one that uses that line?) and is holding firm on its support for what they see as fellow countrymen.

On August 8th Georgia sent troops into South Ossetia to retake the capital, reportedly killing and injuring a number of Russian peacekeepers.  Primarily this was a stupid move by Georgia with Russia still itching to flex its regional muscle after the Kosovo thing.  Conversely, in Georgia's defense, I am under no illusions that the Russian "peacekeepers" in South Ossetia were anything but frontline troops who were ordered to go toe-to-toe with any Georgian military units.  This was demonstrated by how quickly Russian tanks rolled onto the scene, backed by modern fighter aircraft.

If I had to make a prediction I'd say that the world, US included, will have no stomach to try to step into armed conflict on the Russian boarder.  Since little Georgia has no chance in any kind of military match-up, this means that South Ossetia will probably have an independent New Year for 2009.